Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Heist
Only 19 developers shipped a Heist Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Forensics: Crime Scene Detective, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×344 the market median. Revenue is up 550% on the market; 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $25,299) |
| Top 5% | $216k (exactly $215,914) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 72 |
| Announced | 37 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 550% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $10.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Colorful, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,048 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M 
LEGO® Marvel Super Heroes 2 2017 · $4.5M 
Operation: Tango 2021 · $4.3M 
SteamWorld Heist II 2024 · $2.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 71,706 84% | 2.2M | $86M (exactly $86,025,688) | Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux)) |
| | LEGO® Marvel Super Heroes 2 | older | $19.99 | 7,452 86% | 224k | $4.5M (exactly $4,468,964) | TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac) |
| | Operation: Tango | older | $19.99 | 7,167 86% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,298,050) | Clever Plays |
| | SteamWorld Heist II | older | $29.99 | 2,201 93% | 66k | $2.0M (exactly $1,980,240) | Thunderful Development |
 | Sneak Thief | older | $14.99 | 1,743 74% | 52k | $784k (exactly $783,827) | Nicholas Rizzo |
 | FRAMED Collection | older | $9.99 | 2,336 94% | 70k | $700k (exactly $700,099) | Loveshack Entertainment |
 | Quadrilateral Cowboy | older | $19.99 | 897 92% | 27k | $538k (exactly $537,931) | Blendo Games |
 | Picklock | older | $19.99 | 386 86% | 12k | $231k (exactly $231,484) | Creepy Brothers |
 | Volume | older | $19.99 | 379 79% | 11k | $227k (exactly $227,286) | Bithell Games |
 | Forensics: Crime Scene Detective | $24.99 | 288 62% | 8.6k | $216k (exactly $215,914) | Binary Impact, Alchemical Works | |
 | Relooted | $14.99 | 257 87% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | Nyamakop | |
 | Find or be Found | $7.99 | 117 69% | 3.5k | $28k (exactly $28,045) | Studio Downstairs | |
 | Shadowhand Solitaire | $13.99 | 64 90% | 1.9k | $27k (exactly $26,861) | Grey Alien Games | |
 | The Electrifying Incident: A Monster Mini-Expedition | $4.99 | 169 93% | 5.1k | $25k (exactly $25,299) | Draknek and Friends | |
 | Vendetta Forever | $19.99 | 34 76% | 1.0k | $20k (exactly $20,390) | Meatspace Interactive | |
 | THE BRiLLiANT COUP | $16.99 | 29 89% | 870 | $15k (exactly $14,781) | Markus Creative | |
 | Snap & Grab | $7.99 | 58 91% | 1.7k | $14k (exactly $13,903) | No Goblin | |
 | Splittown | $19.99 | 19 94% | 570 | $11k (exactly $11,394) | Mats Kyyrö, Juha Keränen | |
 | LOGBOOK: Beneath the Storm | $13.99 | 13 38% | 390 | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) | Pink Iceberg Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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