Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Gothic

Of 72 developers who shipped a Gothic Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×664 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 112 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 112 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $989 → $719 → $2.9k → $1.3k → $1.5k → $270 (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,073)
Top 5% $316k (exactly $315,624)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 176
Announced 112
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 4,544 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Amnesia: Rebirth older $29.99 7,894 77% 237k $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) Frictional Games
Staffer Case: A Supernatural Mystery Adventure older $16.99 4,074 93% 122k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,518) Team Tetrapod
Mad Father older $9.99 6,229 97% 187k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,831) sen
Heretic + Hexen $14.99 1,789 95% 54k $805k (exactly $804,513) id Software, Nightdive Studios
The Baby In Yellow · EA older $8.99 2,340 96% 70k $631k (exactly $631,098) Team Terrible
Gabriel Knight: Sins of the Fathers 20th Anniversary Edition older $19.99 944 89% 28k $566k (exactly $566,117) Phoenix Online Studios, Pinkerton Road… (Phoenix Online Studios, Pinkerton Road Studio)
Legacy of Kain: Defiance Remastered $24.99 641 96% 19k $481k (exactly $480,558) Crystal Dynamics, PlayEveryWare
A Chair in a Room : Greenwater older $24.99 598 83% 18k $448k (exactly $448,321) Wolf & Wood Interactive Ltd
Lorelai older $8.99 1,447 90% 43k $390k (exactly $390,256) Harvester Games
Black Mirror I older $9.99 1,175 85% 35k $352k (exactly $352,148) Future Games, Unknown Identity
Necrophosis $15.99 722 89% 22k $346k (exactly $346,343) Dragonis Ares, Adonis Brosteanu
ASYLUM $24.99 421 84% 13k $316k (exactly $315,624) Senscape
The 7th Guest Remake $19.99 241 86% 7.2k $145k (exactly $144,528) Vertigo Games, Exkee
Tormentum II $19.99 200 92% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) OhNoo Studio
Gloomy Eyes $24.99 155 94% 4.7k $116k (exactly $116,204) Atlas V, Be Revolution Gaming, 3Dar, Fi… (Atlas V, Be Revolution Gaming, 3Dar, Fishing Cactus, ARTE France)
Monster High™ Skulltimate Secrets™ $39.99 82 71% 2.5k $98k (exactly $98,375) Petoons Studio, Casual Brothers Ltd.
Dead Format $16.99 161 81% 4.8k $82k (exactly $82,062) Katanalevy
Riddlewood Manor $14.99 132 93% 4.0k $59k (exactly $59,360) Peanut Button

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.