Do I ship it?

GamesTower DefenseTower Defense + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Tower Defense?

Tower Defense + Futuristic

Of 111 developers who shipped a Futuristic Tower Defense in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 148 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $23k, ×49 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 148 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 148 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tower Defense + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 111
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $897 → $628 → $599 → $539 → $299 → $1.7k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tower Defense + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 111
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 5% $23k (exactly $23,181)
Developers, 2 yr 111
Released games 252
Announced 148
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Tower Defense; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Base Building
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,177 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 148 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tower Defense with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DwarvesStrong odds10 devs · median $6.7k · 9 announced
  2. + MiningFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  3. + Survival HorrorFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 20 announced
  5. + TanksFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 13 announced
  6. + MechsFair24 devs · median $1.5k · 24 announced
  7. + IdlerFair108 devs · median $1.2k · 136 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  9. + Gun CustomizationFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  10. + LogicFair40 devs · median $955 · 44 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterFair11 devs · median $899 · 12 announced
  12. + Psychological HorrorFair8 devs · median $897 · 8 announced

All 150 pairs on the Tower Defense page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sanctum 2 older $14.99 7,456 92% 224k $3.4M (exactly $3,352,963) Coffee Stain Studios
Cliff Empire older $17.99 4,194 87% 126k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,502) Lion's Shade
X-Morph: Defense older $19.99 3,272 90% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,218) EXOR Studios
Taur older $24.99 2,011 79% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,647) Echo Entertainment
Defense Grid: The Awakening older $9.99 4,528 96% 136k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,042) Hidden Path Entertainment
Sanctum older $9.99 1,982 90% 59k $594k (exactly $594,005) Coffee Stain Studios
MarZ: Tactical Base Defense older $21.99 808 77% 24k $533k (exactly $533,038) Giant Grey
No Creeps Were Harmed TD older $19.99 468 88% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) MinMax Games Ltd.
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games
Variables 2 older $14.99 418 90% 13k $188k (exactly $187,975) Asteroid Game Studio
Keep Her Safe · EA $9.99 382 97% 11k $114k (exactly $114,485) Gugu Studio
Mineral Defense $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Corestone Games
Desperate Place $10.99 253 66% 7.6k $83k (exactly $83,414) BruceGalaxy
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Ocean Keeper Co-op Drill Multiplayer $5.99 129 75% 3.9k $23k (exactly $23,181) RetroStyle Games
Beacon of Neyda $14.99 40 87% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Ghost Creative Studio
Golemworks $6.99 82 90% 2.5k $17k (exactly $17,195) evilalbert
BastionOS $3.30 173 97% 5.2k $17k (exactly $17,127) Feral Paw
2089 - Space Divided $17.99 28 75% 840 $15k (exactly $15,112) CoastGames GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.