Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Futuristic
Should I ship a Futuristic Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Futuristic
Of 306 developers who shipped a Futuristic Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 467 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×170 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 467 games are announced against 161 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) |
| Top 5% | $81k (exactly $80,573) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 306 |
| Released games | 969 |
| Announced | 467 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
- Futuristic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 34,866 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 187 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 467 games are announced against 161 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
Hardspace: Shipbreaker 2022 · $20M 
Mirror's Edge™ 2009 · $19M 
shapez 2 - Factory 2026 · $12M 
The Killing Antidote 2024 · EA · $6.8M 
COCOON 2023 · $6.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hardspace: Shipbreaker | older | $34.99 | 19,431 89% | 583k | $20M (exactly $20,396,721) | Blackbird Interactive |
| | Mirror's Edge™ | older | $19.99 | 31,195 87% | 936k | $19M (exactly $18,707,642) | DICE |
| | shapez 2 - Factory | $29.99 | 13,846 96% | 415k | $12M (exactly $12,457,246) | tobspr Games | |
| | The Killing Antidote | · EA | $29.99 | 7,512 88% | 225k | $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) | MetalStar Studio |
| | COCOON | older | $24.99 | 7,961 94% | 239k | $6.0M (exactly $5,968,362) | Geometric Interactive |
 | Operation: Tango | older | $19.99 | 7,167 86% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,298,050) | Clever Plays |
 | Dreamfall Chapters | older | $24.99 | 3,213 82% | 96k | $2.4M (exactly $2,408,786) | Red Thread Games |
 | POPUCOM | $19.99 | 3,432 87% | 103k | $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) | Hypergryph | |
 | The Entropy Centre | older | $19.99 | 3,359 89% | 101k | $2.0M (exactly $2,014,392) | Stubby Games |
 | Beyond a Steel Sky | older | $34.99 | 1,295 87% | 39k | $1.4M (exactly $1,359,362) | Revolution Software Ltd |
 | The Talos Principle: Reawakened | $39.99 | 1,085 90% | 33k | $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) | Croteam | |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | Metal Garden | $5.99 | 4,375 96% | 131k | $786k (exactly $786,188) | Tinerasoft | |
 | Approximately Up | $24.99 | 995 93% | 30k | $746k (exactly $745,952) | Approximately Games | |
 | Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate | $49.99 | 149 62% | 4.5k | $223k (exactly $223,455) | Mighty Eyes | |
 | Lab Rat | $19.99 | 365 97% | 11k | $219k (exactly $218,890) | Chump Squad | |
 | Machinika: Atlas | $11.99 | 574 76% | 17k | $206k (exactly $206,468) | Littlefield Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.