Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Fishing game?

Loot + Fishing

Of 22 developers who shipped a Loot Fishing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 39 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $568k → $3.4k → $959 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,671)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 42
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Fishing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Character Customization
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 14,621 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Battle Chasers: Nightwar older $29.99 5,573 87% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,014,028) Airship Syndicate
FlyKnight $5.99 10,432 96% 313k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,630) Wabbaboy
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
FATE older $7.99 4,092 95% 123k $981k (exactly $980,852) WildTangent
FATE: Reawakened $24.99 758 73% 23k $568k (exactly $568,273) gamigo US Inc., Tableflip Entertainment… (gamigo US Inc., Tableflip Entertainment AB)
Captain Whiskers: Incremental Seas $5.99 886 85% 27k $159k (exactly $159,214) Happy Universe Studios
FATE: The Cursed King older $7.99 484 93% 15k $116k (exactly $116,015) WildTangent
Lured In $7.99 151 84% 4.5k $36k (exactly $36,195) Big Boy Games
Arctic Anxiety · EA older $2.99 285 55% 8.6k $26k (exactly $25,565) Arctic Studio
Grove Fisher $4.99 98 67% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,671) EVIL CORP GAMES
Post Apocalypse Microbe Lab $7.99 59 94% 1.8k $14k (exactly $14,142) SKIPMORE, URARA-WORKS
Whistling Waters $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Luna Apps
Surviving Skeleton Island $9.99 14 64% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Bert Games
Catfish Idle Pond $4.99 23 100% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Full Bridge LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.