Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Roguelite?

Roguelite + Female Protagonist

Of 298 developers who shipped a Female-Led Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 433 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×8.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×1157 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 433 games are announced against 174 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 433 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 298
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $13k → $10k → $4.3k → $9.0k → $6.9k → $3.8k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 298
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $40,460)
Top 5% $550k (exactly $549,650)
Developers, 2 yr 298
Released games 689
Announced 433
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 156,075 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 433 games are announced against 174 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Garden of Witches $18.99 1,978 92% 59k $1.1M (exactly $1,126,867) Team Tapas
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.