Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Farming

Only 8 developers shipped a Farming Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Farmer Was Replaced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.3k against a market of $480. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 11.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 2010% on the market, 10 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Puzzle + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 25% $240k (exactly $239,920)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 27
Announced 10
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2010% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 11,420 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $230k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Urban Jungle $11.99 667 90% 20k $240k (exactly $239,920) KYLYK
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Nancy Drew®: The Secret of Shadow Ranch older $9.99 217 88% 6.5k $65k (exactly $65,035) HeR Interactive
Princess Farmer older $14.99 125 96% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Samobee Games
Fujii - A Magical Gardening Adventure older $9.99 99 91% 3.0k $30k (exactly $29,670) Funktronic Labs
Island Farmer - Jigsaw Puzzle older $1.99 463 94% 14k $28k (exactly $27,641) Mens Sana Interactive
Skystead Ranch $24.99 28 71% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) ToastieLabs
Square Farm older $9.99 37 89% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Turnip Based Games
Instant Farmer - Logic Puzzle older $1.99 160 91% 4.8k $9.6k (exactly $9,552) Mens Sana Interactive
BLUMA $7.99 22 100% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Potaco Studio
Land Develop $0.99 21 71% 630 $624 (exactly $624) SUJIKO Media Group
Plant the Towers $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) SteelArg Games
Foxes' Festival $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) GIG (Graven Industries Games)
WordHerd · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Nellyvision Limited

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.