Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Life Sim?

Life Sim + Farming

Of 34 developers who shipped a Farming Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $26k, ×55 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×28202 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 46 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 54.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $262k → $1.3M → $18k → $14k → $8.4k (still earning) → $104k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $5.9k (exactly $5,920)
Median $26k (exactly $26,083)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $69,704)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $13,395,985)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 74
Announced 46
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Farming Sim
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 67,261 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.0k, median $26k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.0k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
DORAEMON STORY OF SEASONS older $49.99 1,845 81% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,766,946) Marvelous Inc., Brownies Inc.
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life older $39.99 1,199 78% 36k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) Marvelous Inc.
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
Hydroponics Farm & Store Simulator $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Bewolba Studios
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks
Chill Town $9.99 200 68% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Low-Hi Tech

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.