Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Faith

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Faith Roguelite?

Roguelite + Faith

Only 16 developers shipped a Faith Roguelite in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Touhou Dystopian, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $49k, ×102 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1363 the market median. Revenue is up 41960% on the market; 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 102.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 41960% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Faith
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $261k → $359 → $1.4k → $449 → $158k (still earning) → $105k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Faith: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $49k (exactly $48,551)
Top 25% $158k (exactly $157,941)
Top 5% $648k (exactly $647,652)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 35
Announced 32
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 41960% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Faith
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.66 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $9.66.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 5,002 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $49k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Touhou Kouryudou ~ Unconnected Marketeers. older $14.99 1,756 97% 53k $790k (exactly $789,673) 上海アリス幻樂団
Touhou Dystopian $9.99 2,161 97% 65k $648k (exactly $647,652) Kay Lnk
Touhou Monster TD ~ 幻想乡妖怪塔防 older $18.99 948 90% 28k $540k (exactly $540,076) MyACG Studio
Touhou Endless Dream older $7.99 1,705 93% 51k $409k (exactly $408,688) a10a010, MyACG Studio
Touhou Blooming Chaos 2 older $5.99 2,160 92% 65k $388k (exactly $388,152) 二色幽紫蝶, re零同人社
Touhou Genso Wanderer -FORESIGHT- older $34.99 290 46% 8.7k $304k (exactly $304,413) AQUASTYLE, ankaa studio
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Black Market of Bulletphilia ~ 100th Black Market. older $14.99 477 83% 14k $215k (exactly $214,507) 上海アリス幻樂団
Feed The Pit $9.99 635 97% 19k $190k (exactly $190,310) Curious Fox Sox
Touhou Blooming Soul · EA $5.99 911 96% 27k $164k (exactly $163,707) 二色幽紫蝶
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Internet Survivor Survivors $14.99 234 75% 7.0k $105k (exactly $105,230) ビートまりお / COOL&CREATE
Touhou Lensed Night Sky, Kaseigai $22.00 144 95% 4.3k $95k (exactly $95,040) Fire Land
Malys $14.99 172 79% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Summerfall Studios
Flock of the Seraphim $9.99 162 85% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) GuuchanDev
Herogue $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) 巴豆肥工作室
Red Tower $2.99 16 93% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Dream4team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.