Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Roguelite?

Roguelite + Dystopian

Of 65 developers who shipped a Dystopian Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1399 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 184 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 184 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $47k → $599 → $6.2k → $3.1k → $12k → $1.0k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,331)
Top 5% $664k (exactly $664,468)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 151
Announced 184
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 9,991 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Brigador: Up-Armored Edition 2016 · $3.4M Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M Going Under 2020 · $1.6M As We Descend 2025 · EA · $801k After Inc: Revival 2026 · $799k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Brigador: Up-Armored Edition older $24.99 4,580 93% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,626) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Going Under older $19.99 2,702 92% 81k $1.6M (exactly $1,620,389) Aggro Crab
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
Marfusha:Sentinel Girls older $7.99 3,116 93% 93k $747k (exactly $746,905) hinyari9
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Touhou Dystopian $9.99 2,161 97% 65k $648k (exactly $647,652) Kay Lnk
Snezhinka:Sentinel Girls2 older $7.99 2,433 96% 73k $583k (exactly $583,190) hinyari9
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
RAM: Random Access Mayhem $14.99 611 97% 18k $275k (exactly $274,767) Xylem Studios
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Reignbreaker $9.99 444 75% 13k $133k (exactly $133,067) Studio Fizbin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.