Do I ship it?

GamesDungeon CrawlerDungeon Crawler + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Dungeon Crawler?

Dungeon Crawler + Perma Death

Of 184 developers who shipped a Perma Death Dungeon Crawler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 322 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×8.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×1222 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 322 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 322 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dungeon Crawler + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 184
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.0k → $5.8k → $8.6k → $2.2k → $5.2k → $7.8k → $3.9k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dungeon Crawler + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 184
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,382)
Top 5% $580k (exactly $580,268)
Developers, 2 yr 184
Released games 486
Announced 322
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dungeon Crawler, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 142,117 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 322 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dungeon Crawler with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair35 devs · median $7.0k · 44 announced
  2. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + DiceFair24 devs · median $5.1k · 32 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair29 devs · median $2.3k · 38 announced
  5. + Local Co-OpFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  6. + ZombiesFair65 devs · median $1.0k · 74 announced
  7. + Word GameFair12 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  8. + ThrillerFair45 devs · median $716 · 46 announced
  9. + Walking SimulatorFair59 devs · median $479 · 62 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair29 devs · median $479 · 33 announced
  11. + MMORPGPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds8 devs · median $55k · 30 announced

All 175 pairs on the Dungeon Crawler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
The Binding of Isaac older $4.99 49,208 94% 1.5M $7.4M (exactly $7,366,438) Edmund McMillen, Florian Himsl
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Dungeon of the ENDLESS™ older $11.99 9,419 87% 283k $3.4M (exactly $3,388,014) AMPLITUDE Studios
NECROPOLIS: BRUTAL EDITION older $29.99 3,696 63% 111k $3.3M (exactly $3,325,291) Harebrained Schemes
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.