Do I ship it?

GamesDungeon CrawlerDungeon Crawler + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Dungeon Crawler?

Dungeon Crawler + Mystery Dungeon

Of 192 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Dungeon Crawler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 260 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 260 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 260 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dungeon Crawler + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 192
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.5k → $2.7k → $750 → $809 → $2.2k → $599 (still earning) → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dungeon Crawler + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 192
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $209k (exactly $208,986)
Developers, 2 yr 192
Released games 499
Announced 260
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dungeon Crawler, Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 16,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 260 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dungeon Crawler with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair35 devs · median $7.0k · 44 announced
  2. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + DiceFair24 devs · median $5.1k · 32 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair29 devs · median $2.3k · 38 announced
  5. + Local Co-OpFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  6. + ZombiesFair65 devs · median $1.0k · 74 announced
  7. + Word GameFair12 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  8. + ThrillerFair45 devs · median $716 · 46 announced
  9. + Walking SimulatorFair59 devs · median $479 · 62 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair29 devs · median $479 · 33 announced
  11. + MMORPGPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds8 devs · median $55k · 30 announced

All 175 pairs on the Dungeon Crawler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition older $14.99 2,953 64% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,964) AMPLITUDE Studios
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
Goblin Cleanup · EA $19.99 1,615 87% 48k $969k (exactly $968,515) Crisalu Games
Escape Dungeon 2 older $17.99 1,700 93% 51k $917k (exactly $917,490) Hide Games
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
FALL IN LABYRINTH older $19.99 1,073 95% 32k $643k (exactly $643,478) JUKKAKU GAMES
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.