Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Roguelite?

Roguelite + Dragons

Of 47 developers who shipped a Dragon Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×266 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 78 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 75% on the market, 78 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $897 → $19k → $1.7k → $4.1k → $896 → $3.6k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,323)
Top 5% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 111
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,075 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GetsuFumaDen: Undying Moon older $24.99 963 76% 29k $722k (exactly $721,961) KONAMI, GuruGuru
Slice & Dice older $8.99 2,484 96% 75k $670k (exactly $669,935) Tann
None Shall Intrude $14.99 934 73% 28k $420k (exactly $420,020) Aeterna Ludi
Dragon Is Dead $19.99 661 75% 20k $396k (exactly $396,402) TeamSuneat
Mirror of Heaven older $9.25 995 79% 30k $276k (exactly $276,112) EnjoyPlay Ltd
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Pathfinder: Gallowspire Survivors older $6.99 559 59% 17k $117k (exactly $117,222) BKOM Studios
The Awakener: Forgotten Oath older $16.99 212 71% 6.4k $108k (exactly $108,056) TANER GAMES
Circle Empires 2 $12.99 266 72% 8.0k $104k (exactly $103,660) Luminous
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Swords And Magic: Path Of Conquest · EA $9.99 128 77% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) ShadowMoon Wolf Game Tech Ltd
Sunbreak War $8.99 122 81% 3.7k $33k (exactly $32,903) Candlelight Studio
My Infamous Dungeon $14.99 63 76% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) BoxFox Studios
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.