Do I ship it?

Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Dinosaurs

Only 16 developers shipped a Dinosaur Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Theropods, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $52k, ×84 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 34 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 34 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $2.7k → $959 → $7.0k → $1.3k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,190)
Top 5% $53k (exactly $52,995)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 84
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 263 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

LEGO® Jurassic World 2015 · $4.7M Tomb Raider: Anniversary 2007 · $1.8M Tomb Raider I (1996) 2012 · $847k Robinson: The Journey 2017 · $313k Super Time Force Ultra 2014 · $304k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LEGO® Jurassic World older $19.99 7,797 92% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,675,861) TT Games Ltd
Tomb Raider: Anniversary older $8.99 6,644 81% 199k $1.8M (exactly $1,791,887) Crystal Dynamics
Tomb Raider I (1996) older $6.99 4,039 85% 121k $847k (exactly $846,978) Core Design
Robinson: The Journey older $19.99 522 56% 16k $313k (exactly $313,043) Crytek
Super Time Force Ultra older $14.99 677 90% 20k $304k (exactly $304,447) Capybara Games
Serial Cleaners older $24.99 357 76% 11k $268k (exactly $267,643) Draw Distance
Go Home Dinosaurs! older $9.99 344 93% 10k $103k (exactly $103,097) Fire Hose Games
Fossil Corner older $9.99 330 98% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,901) Brady Soglin
Day D: Tower Rush older $14.99 206 74% 6.2k $93k (exactly $92,638) Creobit
Fossilfuel 2 older $19.99 142 80% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) DangerousBob Studio LLC
Theropods $17.49 101 89% 3.0k $53k (exactly $52,995) Lost Token
CorgiSpace $4.99 62 96% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) Adam Saltsman
PLAYTOWN: Chapter 3 $8.99 26 88% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) Cyanide TIme Games
PLAYTOWN: Genesis $3.99 35 74% 1.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,190) Cyanide Time Games
Dinosaur Adventure 3-D (1999 Version) $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Knowledge Adventure, Wanderful Edutainm… (Knowledge Adventure, Wanderful Edutainment, Jordan Freeman Group)
Drill-Ceratops $2.99 14 100% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) Oskkarz_
Neanderthallica $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Cheers LLC
Nocturnal Relics $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Mighty Magpie AB
Anzu $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Was Running Studio
Dinosaurs in Place $2.99 4 100% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Clack Clack Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.