Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Life Sim?

Life Sim + Detective

Of 37 developers who shipped a Detective Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×369 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 58 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 58 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $10k → $99k → $1.3k → $599 → $898 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,468)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $175,112)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 81
Announced 58
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Immersive Sim, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,072 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $900, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anonymous Hacker Simulator older $19.99 741 85% 22k $444k (exactly $444,378) Sicarius
The Test: Final Revelation older $1.99 5,286 97% 159k $316k (exactly $315,574) Randumb Studios
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
The Good Life older $29.99 198 74% 5.9k $178k (exactly $178,141) White Owls Inc.
On Your Tail $19.99 292 87% 8.8k $175k (exactly $175,112) Memorable Games
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Sister Ray $11.99 410 95% 12k $147k (exactly $147,477) The Growing Stones
Shale Hill Secrets $14.99 245 80% 7.4k $110k (exactly $110,176) Love-Joint
Malware older $2.99 1,141 87% 34k $102k (exactly $102,348) Odd Games
Airport X-Ray Simulator · EA $12.99 253 80% 7.6k $99k (exactly $98,594) Rainbow Lab
WANTED: Wild Sluts 🔞 $14.99 140 68% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,958) Lewd Star
Barbara: Sex Story $14.99 107 83% 3.2k $48k (exactly $48,118) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
Toxic Marriage Punisher $11.99 122 72% 3.7k $44k (exactly $43,883) 風紋探偵事務所
Lust Night💋 $9.99 105 72% 3.2k $31k (exactly $31,468) Play and Cum 💦

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.