Do I ship it?

GamesDungeon CrawlerDungeon Crawler + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Dungeon Crawler?

Dungeon Crawler + Dating Sim

Only 17 developers shipped a Dating Sim Dungeon Crawler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Return from Core, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $32k, ×68 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1738 the market median. Revenue is up 165% on the market; 42 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 68.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 165% on the market, 42 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dungeon Crawler + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $42k → $8.7k → $23k → $38k → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dungeon Crawler + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $6.9k (exactly $6,893)
Median $32k (exactly $32,384)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $48,466)
Top 5% $826k (exactly $825,714)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 52
Announced 42
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 165% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dungeon Crawler, Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 4,936 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.9k, median $32k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.9k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dungeon Crawler with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair35 devs · median $7.0k · 44 announced
  2. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + DiceFair24 devs · median $5.1k · 32 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair29 devs · median $2.3k · 38 announced
  5. + Local Co-OpFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  6. + ZombiesFair65 devs · median $1.0k · 74 announced
  7. + Word GameFair12 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  8. + ThrillerFair45 devs · median $716 · 46 announced
  9. + Walking SimulatorFair59 devs · median $479 · 62 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair29 devs · median $479 · 33 announced
  11. + MMORPGPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds8 devs · median $55k · 30 announced

All 175 pairs on the Dungeon Crawler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel older $39.99 5,131 94% 154k $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) Nihon Falcom
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
Sword Art Online Re: Hollow Fragment older $19.99 1,862 78% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,641) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
Sakura Dungeon older $19.99 1,374 91% 41k $824k (exactly $823,988) Winged Cloud
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Sex, Please older $5.99 3,243 74% 97k $583k (exactly $582,767) Evil Boobs Cult
Nigate Tale $19.99 678 67% 20k $407k (exactly $406,597) Hermit Games, 2P Games
Mary Skelter: Nightmares older $24.99 541 82% 16k $406k (exactly $405,588) Idea Factory
Conception II: Children of the Seven Stars older $19.99 628 78% 19k $377k (exactly $376,612) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
I'm Not Sex King $10.99 147 76% 4.4k $48k (exactly $48,466) Sex King
Nimbit Frontier · EA $13.99 113 97% 3.4k $47k (exactly $47,426) Megasploot
Veloria $14.99 100 89% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) WANDERING WITCH PROIECTUM
Rewrite Harvest festa! $19.99 64 96% 1.9k $38k (exactly $38,381) VisualArts/Key
Project Skyward $19.99 54 68% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Skyward Foundry
Aquilon's Sex Quest $6.99 112 70% 3.4k $23k (exactly $23,486) Aquilon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.