Do I ship it?

GamesCreature CollectorCreature Collector + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Creature Collector?

Creature Collector + Visual Novel

Of 25 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Creature Collector in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Creature Collector + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $17k → $2.4k → $6.9k → $15k → $441 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Creature Collector + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $545k (exactly $545,486)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 72
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Creature Collector
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Creature Collector, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Dating Sim, RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 5,400 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Creature Collector with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Perma DeathFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  3. + CapitalismFair38 devs · median $3.2k · 38 announced
  4. + LootFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  5. + IdlerFair248 devs · median $2.1k · 260 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair177 devs · median $1.9k · 191 announced
  7. + Action RoguelikeFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  8. + SpaceFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 39 announced
  9. + ZombiesFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  10. + ArcadeFair73 devs · median $629 · 85 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $28k · 82 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds14 devs · median $23k · 43 announced

All 133 pairs on the Creature Collector page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works
JASON, Coming of Age $14.99 1,213 83% 36k $545k (exactly $545,486) Coeur de cochon
My Lovely Wife older $14.99 685 74% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) GameChanger Studio, Toge Productions
Dungeon Travelers: To Heart 2 in Another World older $19.99 184 82% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) AQUAPLUS
Chicken Hill $2.99 1,134 99% 34k $102k (exactly $101,720) 梗立游戏
Lust Arcanum $17.99 184 75% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) GigiBee, Karne
Dragon Spirits 2 older $13.99 137 84% 4.1k $57k (exactly $57,499) FHNBHJ
Final Stardust: Cosmic Nexus older $14.99 72 75% 2.2k $32k (exactly $32,378) NourSaiFR
宠物街金鱼姬 Pet Street Story $8.99 61 98% 1.8k $16k (exactly $16,452) 小鲤应援会
Stuff It! $9.99 54 87% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) BONNISOFT
Hentai Dates $9.99 51 66% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Fantasy Games
Damsels in Distress $8.99 36 83% 1.1k $9.7k (exactly $9,709) Anime Mania
Tame Me Hard! $10.99 28 57% 840 $9.2k (exactly $9,232) IniBugyo
NTR LIFE $3.99 70 74% 2.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,379) Jpegsama

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.