Do I ship it?

Games › Grand Strategy › Grand Strategy + Real-Time with Pause

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time with Pause Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Real-Time with Pause

Only 15 developers shipped a Real-Time with Pause Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terra Invicta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $37k, ×25 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7253 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Real-Time with Pause
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $34k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Real-Time with Pause: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $7.6k (exactly $7,555)
Median $37k (exactly $36,934)
Top 25% $124k (exactly $123,538)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,865,683)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 77
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Real-Time with Pause; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 10,710 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.6k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.6k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 17 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Stellaris 2016 · $210M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M Victoria 3 2022 · $62M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
Distant Worlds 2 older $49.99 2,653 72% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) CodeForce
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
States of Power $11.99 344 88% 10k $124k (exactly $123,737) Sarunas
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Orbi Universo II $24.99 85 75% 2.6k $64k (exactly $63,724) Orbi Universo Team
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
On The Western Front $13.99 88 84% 2.6k $37k (exactly $36,934) Aggroblakh
Trade Conquest $14.99 75 69% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) GrandPaw Games
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.