Do I ship it?

Games › Co-op › Co-op + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Sandbox?

Co-op + Sandbox

Of 252 developers who shipped a Co-op Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 567 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $56k, ×37 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $20M, ×13448 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 567 games are announced against 160 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 567 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 252
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $125k → $37k → $195k → $89k → $51k → $41k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 252
Bottom 30% $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Median $56k (exactly $56,129)
Top 25% $789k (exactly $789,205)
Top 5% $20M (exactly $20,145,183)
Developers, 2 yr 252
Released games 807
Announced 567
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Online Co-Op, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,837,944 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.5k, median $56k, 1 in 4 over $780k, 1 in 20 over $20M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.5k. 4 in 10 of the 109 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 567 games are announced against 160 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M DayZ 2018 · $582M Valheim 2026 · $418M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Garry's Mod older $9.99 1,093,131 96% 33M $328M (exactly $327,611,361) Facepunch Studios
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.