Do I ship it?

Games › Co-op › Co-op + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op RPG?

Co-op + RPG

Of 336 developers who shipped a Co-op RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 792 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×6136 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 792 games are announced against 205 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 792 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 336
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $38k → $73k → $17k → $16k → $15k → $45k → $10k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 336
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $12k (exactly $11,540)
Top 25% $243k (exactly $242,576)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101)
Developers, 2 yr 336
Released games 1,388
Announced 792
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Online Co-Op, Action, Adventure
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 985,176 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 187 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 792 games are announced against 205 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M Terraria 2011 · $372M Palworld 2026 · $371M Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.