Do I ship it?

Games › Co-op › Co-op + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Physics game?

Co-op + Physics

Of 406 developers who shipped a Co-op Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 932 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×2.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1092 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 932 games are announced against 284 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 932 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 406
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $6.2k → $12k → $8.1k → $4.3k → $3.5k → $2.7k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 406
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,287)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,242)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,636,554)
Developers, 2 yr 406
Released games 914
Announced 932
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Online Co-Op, Action, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 998,333 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 149 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 932 games are announced against 284 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M Portal 2 2011 · $117M Teardown 2022 · $114M Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Garry's Mod older $9.99 1,093,131 96% 33M $328M (exactly $327,611,361) Facepunch Studios
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
RV There Yet? $7.99 72,732 90% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,433,860) Nuggets Entertainment
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.