Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Perma Death game?

Co-op + Perma Death

Of 64 developers who shipped a Co-op Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×829 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 153 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 153 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $31k → $1.1k → $6.6k → $4.3k → $4.5k → $959 (still earning) → $20k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $779 (exactly $779)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,245)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 172
Announced 153
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, PvE
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 368,499 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 7 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition older $29.99 59,156 83% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,222,653) Undead Labs
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
Spelunky older $14.99 14,676 92% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Mossmouth
State of Decay: YOSE older $19.99 10,526 82% 316k $6.3M (exactly $6,312,442) Undead Labs
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
EverRail · EA $14.99 372 69% 11k $167k (exactly $167,288) Aesir Interactive
Abandoned Archive $5.99 749 93% 22k $135k (exactly $134,595) Vedal
Subterror $7.99 397 90% 12k $95k (exactly $95,161) Team Monumental
Dig, Dig, Die $7.99 321 64% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Alice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.