Should I ship a Heist Co-op game?
Co-op + Heist
Of 23 developers who shipped a Heist Co-op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $28k, ×19 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×927 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 58 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) |
|---|---|
| Median | $28k (exactly $28,045) |
| Top 25% | $355k (exactly $354,608) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 70 |
| Announced | 58 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Co-op; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Stealth, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 21,237 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 4 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Co-op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SuperheroFair
- + Boomer ShooterFair
- + GamblingFair
- + NinjaFair
- + TypingLong shot
- + Word GameLong shot
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + AutomationPoor odds
- + TransportationPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
Comparable games
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M 
PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M 
Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Call of Duty®: WWII | older | $59.99 | 33,576 71% | 1.0M | $60M (exactly $60,426,727) | Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software |
| | PAYDAY 3 | older | $29.99 | 49,305 45% | 1.5M | $44M (exactly $44,359,708) | Starbreeze Studios |
| | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
 | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
 | Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 | older | $19.99 | 15,133 67% | 454k | $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) | CI Games |
 | Hobo: Tough Life | older | $29.99 | 8,679 84% | 260k | $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) | Perun Creative |
 | PAYDAY™ The Heist | older | $9.99 | 21,870 92% | 656k | $6.6M (exactly $6,554,439) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio. |
 | Crime Boss: Rockay City | older | $19.99 | 8,553 68% | 257k | $5.1M (exactly $5,129,234) | INGAME STUDIOS |
 | Crime Simulator | $14.99 | 6,244 82% | 187k | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) | CookieDev | |
 | Burglin' Gnomes | $9.99 | 4,635 83% | 139k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) | Fobri | |
 | The Break-In | $19.99 | 2,040 87% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) | jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Dark Hours | $9.99 | 3,481 81% | 104k | $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) | Piece of Cake studios | |
 | It's Only Money | $24.99 | 473 78% | 14k | $355k (exactly $354,608) | Usual Suspects Studios | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | Midnight Heist | $9.99 | 389 92% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | MediaTale | |
 | Frog Sqwad 🐸 | $7.99 | 352 72% | 11k | $84k (exactly $84,374) | Panic Stations | |
 | Monaco 2 | $14.99 | 156 63% | 4.7k | $70k (exactly $70,153) | Pocketwatch Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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