Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Co-op game?

Co-op + Crime

Of 32 developers who shipped a Crime Co-op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $30k, ×20 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $170M, ×115672 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 92 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 92 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $441k → $3.9M → $125k → $473k → $1.2M → $4.2k → $41k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $3.8k (exactly $3,776)
Median $30k (exactly $30,397)
Top 25% $399k (exactly $398,800)
Top 5% $173M (exactly $173,276,718)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 109
Announced 92
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 518,682 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.8k, median $30k, 1 in 4 over $390k, 1 in 20 over $170M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.8k. 1 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Watch_Dogs® 2 older $49.99 95,242 82% 2.9M $143M (exactly $142,834,427) Ubisoft
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
A Way Out older $29.99 78,174 87% 2.3M $70M (exactly $70,333,148) Hazelight Studios
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Mafia III: Definitive Edition older $29.99 41,612 57% 1.2M $37M (exactly $37,438,316) Hangar 13, Aspyr (Mac)
Gotham Knights older $59.99 15,688 68% 471k $28M (exactly $28,233,694) Warner Bros. Games Montréal, QLOC
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Fears to Fathom® - Scratch Creek $7.99 7,141 75% 214k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698) Rayll
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
Alpha Response · EA $19.99 788 77% 24k $473k (exactly $472,564) Ultimo Ratio Games
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
SWAT Commander · EA $19.99 665 77% 20k $399k (exactly $398,800) Red Mountain Games, Ritual Interactive
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Parallel Experiment $9.99 702 84% 21k $210k (exactly $210,389) Eleven Puzzles

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.