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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Roguelite?
Roguelite + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 63 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×258 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 132 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $269 (exactly $269) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $6.7k (exactly $6,712) |
| Top 5% | $122k (exactly $122,359) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 63 |
| Released games | 175 |
| Announced | 132 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelite
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Roguelite, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 10,626 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-TimeFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TypingFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DogsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LogicFair
- + DwarvesPoor odds
Comparable games
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
Griftlands 2021 · $8.1M 
Cultist Simulator 2018 · $6.3M 
Hand of Fate 2015 · $4.8M 
School Days 2026 · $2.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | Griftlands | older | $19.99 | 13,440 93% | 403k | $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Cultist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 10,496 82% | 315k | $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) | Weather Factory |
| | Hand of Fate | older | $19.99 | 8,009 89% | 240k | $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) | Defiant Development |
| | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
 | CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience | older | $19.99 | 2,596 91% | 78k | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) | Delve Interactive |
 | 轮回修仙路 | older | $16.99 | 2,945 82% | 88k | $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) | 烟水寒工作室 |
 | Heads Will Roll: Reforged | older | $24.99 | 1,642 82% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,231,007) | 1917 Studios |
 | Lucky Tower Ultimate | $14.99 | 2,281 94% | 68k | $1.0M (exactly $1,025,766) | Studio Seufz | |
 | Guidus Zero | $14.99 | 609 75% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | izzle | |
 | Kromlech | · EA | $29.99 | 136 65% | 4.1k | $122k (exactly $122,359) | Perun Creative |
 | That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Demon Hand | $9.99 | 375 84% | 11k | $112k (exactly $112,388) | Tora Creatives | |
 | Robot girl's dream -RobotBattleChampionship- | $16.99 | 196 95% | 5.9k | $100k (exactly $99,901) | DeskClub Games | |
 | The Test: Reality Check | $4.99 | 647 96% | 19k | $97k (exactly $96,856) | Randumb Studios | |
 | Stash: A Card Looter | $9.99 | 186 79% | 5.6k | $56k (exactly $55,744) | WheeGaming | |
 | Takara Cards | $14.99 | 112 83% | 3.4k | $50k (exactly $50,366) | Post Mortem Pixels | |
 | Ragnar | $14.99 | 61 83% | 1.8k | $27k (exactly $27,432) | Fimbulwinter Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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