Do I ship it?

GamesLooter ShooterLooter Shooter + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Looter Shooter?

Looter Shooter + Choices Matter

Only 12 developers shipped a Choices Matter Looter Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Forever Winter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×7.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 37 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 37 announced, ×7.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Looter Shooter + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $420 → $4.8k → $0 → $178
Outcomes for Looter Shooter + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $19,231,987)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 29
Announced 37
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Looter Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online co-op and a loot economy on top of a shooter
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Looter Shooter, Choices Matter
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 68% positive over 22,166 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $180, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $19M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Looter Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MechsFair13 devs · median $219k · 14 announced
  2. + Vehicular CombatFair11 devs · median $15k · 14 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 8 announced
  4. + 3D PlatformerLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds54 devs · median $25k · 136 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds56 devs · median $25k · 124 announced
  8. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  9. + DystopianPoor odds14 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  10. + Base BuildingPoor odds36 devs · median $9.1k · 74 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds50 devs · median $9.0k · 151 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds27 devs · median $6.9k · 61 announced

All 90 pairs on the Looter Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Fargone · EA older $11.99 527 70% 16k $190k (exactly $189,562) RedDot Games
Deformed older $4.99 163 95% 4.9k $24k (exactly $24,401) Deformed Studios
EON Fighter older $5.99 97 88% 2.9k $17k (exactly $17,431) Square Wheel
Terafall: Survival older $10.99 33 42% 990 $11k (exactly $10,880) Terafall: Survival
Cyber Cartels older $49.99 4 75% 120 $6.0k (exactly $5,999) AQL Team
INVISIBLE FLOW $9.99 16 81% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) DOGHADHOUSE
Finding Home · EA older $14.99 7 42% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Dream Darker Entertainment
Small Hero $0.99 78 85% 2.3k $2.3k (exactly $2,317) Small Hero
Blitz Haul $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Joseph & Theo van Kraay
RFA Station $1.99 3 66% 90 $179 (exactly $179) AK Studio
AI UPRISING · EA $0.99 6 83% 180 $178 (exactly $178) DMG Studios
Slums: DriveBy $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Urban Bear Studio
Trytka $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Trytka Games
Over Shooter $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Chilled Out Duck Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.