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Should I ship a Card Game Roguelite?
Roguelite + Card Game
Of 723 developers who shipped a Card Game Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,282 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×862 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 1,282 games are announced against 478 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $360 (exactly $360) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) |
| Top 25% | $21k (exactly $20,686) |
| Top 5% | $409k (exactly $409,487) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 723 |
| Released games | 1,276 |
| Announced | 1,282 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Roguelite, Card Game; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 69% positive over 255,813 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 274 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,282 games are announced against 478 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-TimeFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TypingFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DogsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LogicFair
- + DwarvesPoor odds
Comparable games
Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M 
Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M 
Inscryption 2021 · $81M 
Balatro 2024 · $72M 
Loop Hero 2021 · $15M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Slay the Spire | older | $24.99 | 191,765 97% | 5.8M | $144M (exactly $143,766,220) | Mega Crit |
| | Slay the Spire 2 | · EA | $24.99 | 183,764 61% | 5.5M | $138M (exactly $137,767,871) | Mega Crit |
| | Inscryption | older | $19.99 | 135,017 96% | 4.1M | $81M (exactly $80,969,695) | Daniel Mullins Games |
| | Balatro | older | $14.99 | 160,715 97% | 4.8M | $72M (exactly $72,273,536) | LocalThunk |
| | Loop Hero | older | $14.99 | 33,816 92% | 1.0M | $15M (exactly $15,207,055) | Four Quarters |
 | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
 | 9 Kings | · EA | $19.99 | 21,352 92% | 641k | $13M (exactly $12,804,794) | Sad Socket |
 | Chrono Ark | older | $24.99 | 12,623 90% | 379k | $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) | Al Fine |
 | Griftlands | older | $19.99 | 13,440 93% | 403k | $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) | Klei Entertainment |
 | Stacklands | older | $7.99 | 29,244 96% | 877k | $7.0M (exactly $7,009,787) | Sokpop Collective |
 | Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors | $9.99 | 18,587 96% | 558k | $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) | poncle, Nosebleed Interactive | |
 | Super Fantasy Kingdom | · EA | $19.99 | 5,630 86% | 169k | $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) | Super Fantasy Games |
 | StarVaders | $24.99 | 3,760 97% | 113k | $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) | Pengonauts | |
 | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | He is Coming | · EA | $19.99 | 3,834 84% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) | Chronocle |
 | DICEOMANCER | $14.99 | 4,749 96% | 142k | $2.1M (exactly $2,135,625) | 超厚皮猪猪 Ultra Piggy Studio | |
 | Demonic Mahjong | $16.99 | 3,875 95% | 116k | $2.0M (exactly $1,975,087) | Boxed Lighting Games | |
 | RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike | $11.99 | 4,239 82% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) | Doraccoon |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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