Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Card Game?

Loot + Card Game

Of 37 developers who shipped a Loot Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $74k, ×118 the market median. Revenue is up 1500% on the market; 61 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1500% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $12k → $5.7k → $60 → $1.3k → $535 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $74,326)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 85
Announced 61
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1500% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Card Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,601 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $480, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
Arcanium: Rise of Akhan older $19.99 670 81% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Supercombo, Inc.
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
Prime World: Defenders older $9.99 729 78% 22k $218k (exactly $218,481) Nival
Monster Slayers older $8.99 804 79% 24k $217k (exactly $216,839) Nerdook Productions
DungeonTop older $15.99 452 80% 14k $217k (exactly $216,824) One Up Plus Entertainment
Lost For Swords $9.99 248 89% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) MaxBytes
Sea Horizon older $14.99 145 75% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) 45 Studio
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
CARNEDGE $6.99 60 68% 1.8k $13k (exactly $12,582) OneShark
Card Corner $4.99 75 76% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Conradical Games
Light Fingers $19.99 17 76% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Numizmatic
BULK $6.49 41 75% 1.2k $8.0k (exactly $7,983) Carlos 'Monty' Montamarta
HoloSeeker $3.99 66 89% 2.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,900) Imoyokan
Mech Shuffle $9.99 19 94% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) PillBugGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.