Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Life Sim?

Life Sim + Card Game

Of 40 developers who shipped a Card Game Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×5702 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 65 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 65 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $624 → $20k → $10k → $10k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Median $10k (exactly $10,180)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,329)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 76
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 58,211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
THE GAME OF LIFE 2 older $12.49 3,702 78% 111k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,139) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Reigns older $2.99 7,504 87% 225k $673k (exactly $673,109) Nerial
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Youtubers Life 3 $19.99 468 50% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) UPLAY Online
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
我的人生 $6.99 496 65% 15k $104k (exactly $104,011) ZZ Games
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games
Choice of Life: Samosbor $4.99 236 87% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,329) Blazing Planet Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.