Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Card Battler?

Loot + Card Battler

Of 29 developers who shipped a Loot Card Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×813 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 59 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60k → $450 → $7.9k → $1.7k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,313)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,088)
Top 5% $511k (exactly $510,859)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 54
Announced 59
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Card Battler; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Auto Battler, Inventory Management, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 23,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Tales & Tactics older $17.99 1,737 80% 52k $937k (exactly $937,459) Table 9 Studio
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Arcanium: Rise of Akhan older $19.99 670 81% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Supercombo, Inc.
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Fickle Card Legend $7.99 992 67% 30k $238k (exactly $237,782) 偶尔不帅
Monster Slayers older $8.99 804 79% 24k $217k (exactly $216,839) Nerdook Productions
DungeonTop older $15.99 452 80% 14k $217k (exactly $216,824) One Up Plus Entertainment
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Valefor $14.99 133 66% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Valefor Ltd
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
HoloSeeker $3.99 66 89% 2.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,900) Imoyokan
Mech Shuffle $9.99 19 94% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) PillBugGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.