Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Capitalism

Of 74 developers who shipped a Capitalist Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $88k, ×187 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 124 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 124 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $599 → $2.0k → $598 → $2.2k → $2.4k → $898 (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,203)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $88,591)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 191
Announced 124
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,303 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
No Umbrellas Allowed older $19.99 1,394 80% 42k $836k (exactly $835,982) Hoochoo Game Studios
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Third Crisis: Neon Nights · EA $19.99 1,127 92% 34k $676k (exactly $675,862) Anduo Games
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
Wolf of Stock Street older $10.99 878 77% 26k $289k (exactly $289,477) 樹懶叫工作室, sloth gamer
Budget Cuts 2: Mission Insolvency older $14.99 460 81% 14k $207k (exactly $206,862) Neat Corporation, Fast Travel Games
Broken Reality 2000 $14.99 371 76% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Dynamic Media Triad
Super Life (RPG) older $9.99 534 90% 16k $160k (exactly $160,040) Klick Ink L.P.
Check Inn $14.99 197 84% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) KishMish Games
Block Factory $9.99 251 77% 7.5k $75k (exactly $75,225) OverPowered Team
Mythmatch $19.99 124 98% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) Team Artichoke
Alruna and the Necro-Industrialists $9.99 113 84% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,866) Neckbolt
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
Pocket Boss $4.99 134 89% 4.0k $20k (exactly $20,060) Langfilm, Mario von Rickenbach

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.