Do I ship it?

GamesBullet TimeBullet Time + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Time Perma Death game?

Bullet Time + Perma Death

Of 21 developers who shipped a Bullet Time Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 44 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1330% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Time + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $6.0k → $6.3k → $898 → $0 → $267 → $150 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Time + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $26k (exactly $26,374)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 66
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1330% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Time, Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Action, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 572 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NoirFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + LogicFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterFair30 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  4. + LootFair15 devs · median $836 · 21 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair13 devs · median $718 · 8 announced
  6. + StrategyFair60 devs · median $599 · 59 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair20 devs · median $597 · 20 announced
  8. + Quick-Time EventsLong shot10 devs · median $390 · 15 announced
  9. + On-Rails ShooterLong shot8 devs · median $359 · 8 announced
  10. + DystopianPoor odds13 devs · median $44k · 39 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $5.4k · 30 announced
  12. + Beat 'em upPoor odds11 devs · median $4.7k · 19 announced

All 95 pairs on the Bullet Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Orbital Bullet – The 360° Rogue-lite older $16.99 601 82% 18k $306k (exactly $306,330) SmokeStab
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Stellar Interface older $12.99 188 78% 5.6k $73k (exactly $73,264) ImaginationOverflow
Time Snatcher Handy $9.99 88 96% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) PulleyBun, ClockworkCats
DEATHRUN TV older $14.99 58 81% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Laser Dog
Gunstoppable $12.49 58 81% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,733) CAGE Studios
TYPECAST older $4.99 145 91% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,706) Gutter Arcade, Mecha Studios
Amber Tail Adventure older $4.99 120 79% 3.6k $18k (exactly $17,964) Xyak-Xyak
Dungeon Core older $11.99 48 79% 1.4k $17k (exactly $17,266) Talismanic Entertainment
Decks of Dexterity $14.99 33 100% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Coded Games
Duck Paradox $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Magic Games
DOOM SPIRAL $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Forbidden Saucery
Bean Wizard Eviscerates the Gonklins $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) GoblinRunt Games
Deadcave $0.99 9 100% 270 $267 (exactly $267) cnsmini
TOWERPULSE $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) HAT Media
Toey Weedz Forreal $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Tobias Alexander Knobloch

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.