Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Base Building game?

Co-op + Base Building

Of 181 developers who shipped a Co-op Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 368 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $51k, ×34 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×11078 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 368 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 33.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 368 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 181
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $44k → $542k → $118k → $65k → $23k → $72k (still earning) → $36k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 181
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Median $51k (exactly $50,718)
Top 25% $715k (exactly $714,599)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 181
Released games 459
Announced 368
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Base Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,524,302 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.9k, median $51k, 1 in 4 over $710k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.9k. 5 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 368 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
ASTRONEER older $29.99 118,844 91% 3.6M $107M (exactly $106,923,947) System Era Softworks
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.