Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Roguelite?

Roguelite + Artificial Intelligence

Of 64 developers who shipped an AI Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is up 370% on the market; 81 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 370% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $897 → $479 → $1.3k → $359 → $898 → $2.5k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,276)
Top 5% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 123
Announced 81
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 370% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 6,086 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Space Simulation Toolkit · EA older $24.99 500 80% 15k $375k (exactly $374,850) Pavel Kudinov
AI Roguelite older $14.99 597 83% 18k $268k (exactly $268,471) Max Loh
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Timber Rush $4.99 1,490 84% 45k $223k (exactly $223,053) Allerton Apps
Mind older $17.99 372 69% 11k $201k (exactly $200,768) WHIRLLAXY LIMITED
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
MOTHERGUNSHIP: FORGE older $19.99 253 93% 7.6k $152k (exactly $151,724) Terrible Posture Games
Rogue AI Simulator older $11.99 364 82% 11k $131k (exactly $130,931) Nerdook Productions
Net.Attack() - Code or Die! $7.99 510 80% 15k $122k (exactly $122,247) ByteRockers' Games
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Twilight Wars $14.99 229 74% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Comrade Bear Games
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Breach Protocol $14.99 149 69% 4.5k $67k (exactly $67,005) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Survivor Girls Sanctuary $9.99 189 64% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Survival Strategy !

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.