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Should I ship an Alternate-History Tower Defense?
Tower Defense + Alternate History
Only 13 developers shipped an Alternate-History Tower Defense in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Grit and Valor - 1949, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 35 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $416 (exactly $416) |
| Top 25% | $4.6k (exactly $4,613) |
| Top 5% | $164k (exactly $164,318) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 39 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8060% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tower Defense
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Tower Defense; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Combat, Resource Management
- Price point
- $7.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.00.
The top 8 games average 79% positive over 364 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tower Defense with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DwarvesStrong odds
- + MiningFair
- + Survival HorrorFair
- + CapitalismFair
- + TanksFair
- + MechsFair
- + IdlerFair
- + PuzzleFair
- + Gun CustomizationFair
- + LogicFair
- + On-Rails ShooterFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
Comparable games
IS Defense 2016 · $263k 
Grit and Valor - 1949 2025 · $164k 
Steampunk Tower 2 2018 · $75k 
Planet TD 2023 · $11k 
Pact of Steel 2026 · $5.4k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | IS Defense | older | $5.99 | 1,465 91% | 44k | $263k (exactly $263,260) | Destructive Creations |
| | Grit and Valor - 1949 | $19.99 | 274 75% | 8.2k | $164k (exactly $164,318) | Milky Tea Studios | |
| | Steampunk Tower 2 | older | $7.99 | 311 72% | 9.3k | $75k (exactly $74,547) | DreamGate |
| | Planet TD | older | $2.99 | 124 73% | 3.7k | $11k (exactly $11,123) | MD Games |
| | Pact of Steel | $14.99 | 12 83% | 360 | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) | Steel Potato Games LLC | |
 | MK-ULTRA Psychic Defense | · EA | $7.00 | 23 91% | 690 | $4.8k (exactly $4,830) | Zero Sequels |
 | FuJianStrike | $6.99 | 22 100% | 660 | $4.6k (exactly $4,613) | Mithril_055 | |
 | America Against Ants | $14.99 | 9 100% | 270 | $4.0k (exactly $4,047) | Aartform Games, Mark Brendan | |
 | Micro Annihilation | · EA older | $14.99 | 8 75% | 240 | $3.6k (exactly $3,598) | ZoopTEK |
 | Simple Sanguo | older | $6.99 | 15 80% | 450 | $3.1k (exactly $3,146) | clip_on |
 | Gallipoli Trenches: The Forgotten Front WW1 | $4.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Fronty Games | |
 | Hard as Hell | $0.99 | 14 85% | 420 | $416 (exactly $416) | L4S Games, KAPPIRE | |
 | Little Witches vs Monsters | $0.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $89 (exactly $89) | Thiago Cesário Machado | |
 | ITribe | $14.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Keka | |
 | Heroes of Higher Realms | $11.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | DreamMasters Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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