Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Adventure game?

Loot + Adventure

Of 407 developers who shipped a Loot Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 782 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $920k, ×1481 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 782 games are announced against 246 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 782 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 407
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $4.0k → $3.4k → $3.9k → $2.5k → $2.0k → $2.3k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 407
Bottom 30% $446 (exactly $446)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,625)
Top 5% $930k (exactly $929,824)
Developers, 2 yr 407
Released games 1,060
Announced 782
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 327,793 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $920k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 186 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 782 games are announced against 246 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Wolcen: Lords of Mayhem older $19.99 61,837 55% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,083,649) WOLCEN Studio
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
The Slormancer $19.99 6,926 81% 208k $4.2M (exactly $4,153,522) Slormite Studios
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
FlyKnight $5.99 10,432 96% 313k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,630) Wabbaboy
Dragonkin: The Banished $24.99 2,239 72% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) Eko Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.