Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsTransportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation game?

Transportation

Of 239 developers who shipped a Transportation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 364 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2764 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 364 games are announced against 149 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 364 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 239
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.3k → $7.2k → $5.1k → $1.5k → $7.7k → $3.6k → $5.6k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 239
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,906)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521)
Developers, 2 yr 239
Released games 646
Announced 364
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Transportation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 90,049 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 107 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 364 games are announced against 149 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Transportation

54 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Transportation + Choices Matter Poor odds $1.3k 17 devs
  2. Sports + Transportation Dead $1.4k 12 devs
  3. RTS + Transportation Dead $269 7 devs
  4. Transportation + 2D Platformer Dead $210 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Need for Speed™ Hot Pursuit Remastered older $29.99 13,583 81% 407k $12M (exactly $12,220,625) Stellar Entertainment Limited
The Bus $39.99 7,831 73% 235k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,851) TML-Studios
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.