Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Naval Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat

Of 124 developers who shipped a Naval Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 255 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2558 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 255 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 255 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 124
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $4.2k → $3.9k → $15k → $3.0k → $600 → $3.9k (still earning) → $900 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 124
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,581)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Developers, 2 yr 124
Released games 405
Announced 255
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 135,028 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 255 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Naval Combat

55 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Third-Person Shooter + Naval Combat Dead $1.2k 5 devs
  2. Flight + Naval Combat Dead $449 8 devs
  3. Naval Combat + Shooter Dead $446 20 devs
  4. Naval Combat + Turn-Based Tactics Dead $150 16 devs
  5. Naval Combat + Turn-Based Combat Dead $150 15 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M UBOAT 2024 · $23M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.