Do I ship it?

GamesWalking SimulatorWalking Simulator + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Walking Simulator?

Walking Simulator + Supernatural

Of 297 developers who shipped a Supernatural Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 354 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 354 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 354 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Walking Simulator + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 297
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.7k → $3.1k → $2.9k → $4.2k → $1.7k → $1.9k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Walking Simulator + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 297
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,379)
Top 5% $134k (exactly $134,131)
Developers, 2 yr 297
Released games 576
Announced 354
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Walking Simulator; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 14,434 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 151 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 354 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds13 devs · median $5.8k · 9 announced
  2. + WarFair10 devs · median $5.1k · 12 announced
  3. + RomanceFair36 devs · median $3.5k · 38 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair38 devs · median $2.7k · 25 announced
  5. + ThrillerFair449 devs · median $2.7k · 499 announced
  6. + MusicFair16 devs · median $2.1k · 20 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorFair1,043 devs · median $1.7k · 1,251 announced
  8. + PsychologicalFair442 devs · median $1.7k · 552 announced
  9. + IdlerFair38 devs · median $1.7k · 41 announced
  10. + Mystery DungeonFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  11. + NoirFair44 devs · median $1.5k · 52 announced
  12. + HorrorFair1,169 devs · median $1.5k · 1,331 announced

All 145 pairs on the Walking Simulator page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
Murdered: Soul Suspect older $19.99 12,051 87% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) Airtight Games
The Vanishing of Ethan Carter older $19.99 6,862 87% 206k $4.1M (exactly $4,115,141) The Astronauts
The Painscreek Killings older $19.99 5,784 90% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,468,665) EQ Studios
Oxenfree older $9.99 9,499 91% 285k $2.8M (exactly $2,846,850) Night School Studio
The Bridge Curse 2: The Extrication older $24.99 2,493 93% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,002) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Lunch Lady older $4.99 9,722 86% 292k $1.5M (exactly $1,455,383) Manic Mice
Layers of Fear older $29.99 1,409 78% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,677) Anshar Studios, Bloober Team
OXENFREE II: Lost Signals older $19.99 1,976 88% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,185,007) Night School Studio
DON'T SCREAM $7.99 4,505 65% 135k $1.1M (exactly $1,079,848) Digital Cybercherries
The Scourge | Tai Ương $19.99 1,192 93% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Rare Reversee, Beaztek
One-Eyed Likho $19.99 1,155 93% 35k $693k (exactly $692,654) Morteshka
Amenti $6.99 2,184 80% 66k $458k (exactly $457,985) Darkphobia Games
Dollmare $4.99 2,045 94% 61k $306k (exactly $306,136) Alex Grade, gonzeek, Oxeren
No Players Online $14.99 624 83% 19k $281k (exactly $280,613) Beeswax Games
Dread Flats $5.99 1,453 83% 44k $261k (exactly $261,104) Ghostcase
DYSTHANASIA $24.99 334 88% 10k $250k (exactly $250,400) Madowaku Kobo
Call of the Elder Gods $24.99 313 89% 9.4k $235k (exactly $234,656) Out of the Blue Games
Junji Ito Maniac: An Infinite Gaol $11.99 629 78% 19k $226k (exactly $226,251) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.