Do I ship it?

GamesWord GameWord Game + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Word Game?

Word Game + Supernatural

Only 14 developers shipped a Supernatural Word Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Séance of Blake Manor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×10 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×4650 the market median. Revenue is up 565% on the market; 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 565% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Word Game + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.3k → $18k → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Word Game + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,852)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,114)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 29
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 565% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Word Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Choices Matter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,068 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Word Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  2. + TacticalFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  3. + Point & ClickFair60 devs · median $1.6k · 56 announced
  4. + LootFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 8 announced
  5. + AutomationFair12 devs · median $1.6k · 11 announced
  6. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  7. + DetectiveFair82 devs · median $1.3k · 90 announced
  8. + Procedural GenerationFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair18 devs · median $1.2k · 16 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair29 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced
  11. + IncrementalFair91 devs · median $1.2k · 77 announced
  12. + NatureFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 8 announced

All 98 pairs on the Word Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway
Vampires' Melody older $3.99 5,559 97% 167k $665k (exactly $665,412) AsicxArt
Paper Bride older $7.99 2,030 91% 61k $487k (exactly $486,591) HeartBeat Plus
Paper Bride 2 Zangling Village older $9.99 1,010 91% 30k $303k (exactly $302,697) HeartBeat Plus
Anomalous Coffee Machine 2 $6.99 753 81% 23k $158k (exactly $157,904) HoruBrain Interactive
Rubbings $9.99 183 87% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) 午夜说书人
咒影 Curse of the Shadow $3.99 285 81% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,114) 小青蛙妙妙制作组
Dark Notes older $7.99 108 75% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) HeartBeat Plus
LakeLady $7.99 76 80% 2.3k $18k (exactly $18,217) HungerWhale Games
品玉庵异谈 PinYuAn Tales older $3.99 100 93% 3.0k $12k (exactly $11,970) 小青蛙妙妙制作组
THE TALE OF SPRING CITY $8.99 21 76% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) 图南工作室(Tunan Studio)
One Day $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) LSAusa
Bedtime Story : Saint $1.99 22 72% 660 $1.3k (exactly $1,313) TinyBigger
cijian appearance $2.40 14 78% 420 $1.0k (exactly $1,008) 万象重工制作zu
Obsession $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) spektor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.