Do I ship it?

GamesTwin Stick ShooterTwin Stick Shooter + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Twin Stick Shooter?

Twin Stick Shooter + Supernatural

Only 11 developers shipped a Supernatural Twin Stick Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Section 13, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×972 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Twin Stick Shooter + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Twin Stick Shooter + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,424)
Top 5% $462k (exactly $461,769)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 26
Announced 13
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.40

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Twin Stick Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Twin Stick Shooter
Price point
$8.40 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 71% positive over 1,516 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Twin Stick Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Psychological HorrorFair9 devs · median $718 · 4 announced
  2. + Looter ShooterPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  3. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  4. + Tower DefensePoor odds12 devs · median $6.7k · 25 announced
  5. + MedievalPoor odds8 devs · median $6.3k · 32 announced
  6. + LootPoor odds24 devs · median $5.4k · 62 announced
  7. + Action RPGPoor odds52 devs · median $5.1k · 96 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyPoor odds33 devs · median $4.7k · 65 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds64 devs · median $4.6k · 122 announced
  10. + 2D FighterPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 28 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds30 devs · median $3.0k · 70 announced
  12. + DestructionPoor odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 39 announced

All 90 pairs on the Twin Stick Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Ritual: Crown of Horns older $19.99 58 68% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) Draw Distance
Rose and Locket $11.99 54 92% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Whistling Wizard
A Quiver of Crows older $14.99 26 76% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Sheado.net
Pecaminosa older $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Cereal Games
Mad Devils: Damned-finitive Edition older $14.99 11 54% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Itzy Interactive Inc.
HOLYHUNT older $4.99 24 95% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) ARTFICIAL
Rune Bender VR $12.99 7 100% 210 $2.7k (exactly $2,728) Nurogames
Breach the Abyss $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Digital Firewood
Brainrot Tung Tung Sahur $1.99 6 66% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Onlygames S.R.L.
Second Death $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) David Hirosky
Lovecraft Survivors $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Threshold Games
Helen in Hell $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Soined
Defy The Abyss $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BeWolf Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.