Do I ship it?

GamesTwin Stick ShooterTwin Stick Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Twin Stick Shooter?

Twin Stick Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Of 30 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Twin Stick Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $75k, ×120 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 70 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 70 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Twin Stick Shooter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $9.4k → $599 → $3.0k → $3.9k → $11k → $15k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Twin Stick Shooter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,614)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $75,602)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 123
Announced 70
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Twin Stick Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Twin Stick Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Top-Down, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,322 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $75k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Twin Stick Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Psychological HorrorFair9 devs · median $718 · 4 announced
  2. + Looter ShooterPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  3. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  4. + Tower DefensePoor odds12 devs · median $6.7k · 25 announced
  5. + MedievalPoor odds8 devs · median $6.3k · 32 announced
  6. + LootPoor odds24 devs · median $5.4k · 62 announced
  7. + Action RPGPoor odds52 devs · median $5.1k · 96 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyPoor odds33 devs · median $4.7k · 65 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds64 devs · median $4.6k · 122 announced
  10. + 2D FighterPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 28 announced
  11. + DestructionPoor odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 39 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $2.9k · 19 announced

All 90 pairs on the Twin Stick Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bastion older $14.99 28,223 95% 847k $13M (exactly $12,691,883) Supergiant Games
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
Rusted Moss older $19.99 1,575 88% 47k $945k (exactly $944,527) Emlise, happysquared, sunnydaze
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Insect Swarm older $6.99 2,491 84% 75k $522k (exactly $522,363) Parallel Portal
Decision: Red Daze older $19.99 855 74% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) FlyAnvil
Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now older $6.99 2,098 89% 63k $440k (exactly $439,951) Dreamworlds
Kill The Crows older $4.99 2,848 95% 85k $426k (exactly $426,346) 5minlab Corp.
CYGNI: All Guns Blazing older $29.99 448 60% 13k $403k (exactly $403,066) KeelWorks
The Ember Guardian $19.99 278 82% 8.3k $167k (exactly $166,717) Ratbit Games
Odinfall · EA $12.99 194 82% 5.8k $76k (exactly $75,602) Ember Paw Games
9th Sentinel Sisters $7.99 273 69% 8.2k $65k (exactly $65,438) Live Wire
Survivor Mercs $9.99 147 70% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Wolpertinger Games
Where the forest ends $9.99 132 68% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,560) MonkeyBassGames
Driveloop: Survivors · EA $9.99 96 76% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Stunbyte
Ammo and Oxygen $14.99 53 64% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Juvty Worlds
SCAD · EA $7.99 86 76% 2.6k $21k (exactly $20,614) NAISU
RoadOut $14.99 34 97% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Rastrolabs Game Studio
M.O.O.D.S. $12.99 29 82% 870 $11k (exactly $11,301) StickyStoneStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.