Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI Strategy game?

Strategy + World War I

Of 23 developers who shipped a WWI Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5752 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 41 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $345k → $541k → $50k → $3.1k → $334k → $37k → $779k (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 25% $187k (exactly $186,666)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 104
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Tactical, Wargame
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 32,565 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Victoria 3 2022 · $62M Verdun 2015 · $52M Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M Iron Harvest 2020 · $11M Victoria II 2010 · $9.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Iron Harvest older $29.99 11,682 74% 350k $11M (exactly $10,510,295) KING Art
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Last Train Home older $39.99 4,511 86% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,411,847) Ashborne Games
Tannenberg older $19.99 7,644 86% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,107) Blackmill Games
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Warfare Legacy Collection $9.99 1,115 92% 33k $334k (exactly $334,166) Con Artist Games
Warnament $12.99 479 84% 14k $187k (exactly $186,666) Luden.io
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
Trench Face $2.99 717 93% 22k $64k (exactly $64,315) Pulse Blue
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.