Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Strategy game?

Strategy + Western

Of 49 developers who shipped a Western Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×209 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 66 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $4.0k → $2.9k → $7.0k → $9.6k → $2.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $131,290)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 129
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Management, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,187 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Desperados III older $39.99 11,880 96% 356k $14M (exactly $14,252,436) Mimimi Games
War of Rights · EA older $29.99 13,441 88% 403k $12M (exactly $12,092,868) Campfire Games
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Outlaws of the Old West · EA older $19.99 5,584 58% 168k $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) Virtual Basement LLC
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
SteamWorld Build older $24.99 1,884 83% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,435) The Station
Arco older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Franek, Max Cahill, Bibiki, Fáyer
Railroad Corporation older $35.99 1,094 74% 33k $1.2M (exactly $1,181,192) Corbie Games
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
Deep Corp · EA $11.99 365 89% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) KishMish Games
Wild West Supermarket Simulator $12.99 168 63% 5.0k $65k (exactly $65,470) SunDust
DEAD END COLOSSEUM SS $10.99 138 83% 4.1k $45k (exactly $45,499) TLACHTLI
Gold Miner:Classic Edition $3.99 350 82% 11k $42k (exactly $41,895) GameRival
Brawl To The West $8.99 139 71% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) GagaRush
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Barrel Roll $4.99 188 96% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) Barrel Roll

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.