Games › Strategy › Strategy + Villain Protagonist
Should I ship a Villain-Led Strategy game?
Strategy + Villain Protagonist
Only 17 developers shipped a Villain-Led Strategy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition , made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $34k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $28k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5113 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $27k (exactly $27,279) |
|---|---|
| Median | $34k (exactly $33,579) |
| Top 25% | $116k (exactly $115,573) |
| Top 5% | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 105 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, City Builder, Management
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 5,183 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $28k. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + BaseballFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + WuxiaFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + SubmarineFair
- + NavalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Shop KeeperFair
- + HackingFair
Comparable games
Evil Genius 2: World Domination 2021 · $14M 
Dungeons 3 2017 · $11M 
Tyranny 2016 · $8.9M 
Aliens vs. Predator™ 2010 · $7.3M 
Iratus: Lord of the Dead 2020 · $6.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Evil Genius 2: World Domination | older | $39.99 | 11,255 69% | 338k | $14M (exactly $13,502,624) | Rebellion |
| | Dungeons 3 | older | $29.99 | 12,648 93% | 379k | $11M (exactly $11,379,406) | Realmforge Studios |
| | Tyranny | older | $29.99 | 9,877 87% | 296k | $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | Aliens vs. Predator™ | older | $14.99 | 16,268 91% | 488k | $7.3M (exactly $7,315,720) | Rebellion |
| | Iratus: Lord of the Dead | older | $29.99 | 7,206 84% | 216k | $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) | Unfrozen |
 | War for the Overworld | older | $29.99 | 6,495 85% | 195k | $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) | Brightrock Games |
 | Empire of Sin | older | $39.99 | 4,544 49% | 136k | $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) | Romero Games |
 | Police Stories | older | $19.99 | 7,893 85% | 237k | $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) | HypeTrain Digital |
 | This Is the Police | older | $14.99 | 9,153 82% | 275k | $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) | Weappy Studio |
 | Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery | older | $24.99 | 4,861 78% | 146k | $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) | Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.) |
 | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
 | None Shall Intrude | $14.99 | 934 73% | 28k | $420k (exactly $420,020) | Aeterna Ludi | |
 | Buggos 2 | $19.99 | 692 83% | 21k | $415k (exactly $414,992) | Intrepid Marmot | |
 | Dungeon Warfare 3 | $18.99 | 679 78% | 20k | $387k (exactly $386,826) | Excidium Inc., Valsar | |
 | Relooted | $14.99 | 257 87% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | Nyamakop | |
 | Fall of an Empire | $29.99 | 80 67% | 2.4k | $72k (exactly $71,976) | JG Games | |
 | Castle Doombad Classic | $9.99 | 140 95% | 4.2k | $42k (exactly $41,958) | Grumpyface Studios | |
 | Lords of Ravage | $9.99 | 138 66% | 4.1k | $41k (exactly $41,359) | Synthetic Domain | |
 | Monstergirl Hunters | $15.99 | 70 94% | 2.1k | $34k (exactly $33,579) | MadoWorks | |
 | Underworld Overseer | $19.99 | 52 90% | 1.6k | $31k (exactly $31,184) | Myron Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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