Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Strategy game?

Strategy + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 1,772 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,030 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×621 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 3,030 games are announced against 1,081 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 3,030 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,772
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $8.6k → $3.1k → $2.6k → $2.9k → $2.1k → $1.1k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,772
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,103)
Top 5% $390k (exactly $389,844)
Developers, 2 yr 1,772
Released games 5,030
Announced 3,030
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Combat, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 187,360 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 881 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,030 games are announced against 1,081 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.