Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation Strategy game?

Strategy + Transportation

Of 87 developers who shipped a Transportation Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×753 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 159 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 159 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $22k → $6.9k → $37k → $7.7k → $12k → $3.2k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,187)
Top 5% $473k (exactly $472,682)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 261
Announced 159
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Transportation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 31,812 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Mini Motorways older $9.99 23,561 96% 707k $7.1M (exactly $7,061,232) Dinosaur Polo Club
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
Bus Simulator 18 older $14.99 8,779 79% 263k $3.9M (exactly $3,947,916) stillalive studios
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Bus Simulator 27 $29.99 489 59% 15k $440k (exactly $439,953) Simteract
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Heavy Cargo - The Truck Simulator $24.99 222 53% 6.7k $166k (exactly $166,433) tox² interactive GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.