Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Strategy game?

Strategy + Trading

Of 189 developers who shipped a Trading Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 435 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×601 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 435 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 435 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 189
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $6.0k → $1.9k → $14k → $8.1k → $2.2k → $2.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 189
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,262)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 189
Released games 480
Announced 435
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Trading; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 53% positive over 53,236 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 435 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Drug Dealer Simulator older $19.99 18,297 85% 549k $11M (exactly $10,972,711) Byterunners
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
The Guild 3 older $29.99 7,120 60% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) Purple Lamp, GolemLabs
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
X Rebirth older $29.99 5,156 42% 155k $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) Egosoft
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Let Them Trade $17.99 1,070 84% 32k $577k (exactly $577,479) Spaceflower
Synergy $24.99 693 79% 21k $520k (exactly $519,542) Leikir Studio
The Executive - Movie Industry Tycoon $14.99 1,034 80% 31k $465k (exactly $464,990) Aniki Games
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.