Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Strategy game?

Strategy + Top-Down Shooter

Of 192 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 302 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 114 developers shipped in the last year and 302 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 302 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 192
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $898 → $958 → $299 → $419 → $599 → $599 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 192
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,838)
Top 5% $83k (exactly $83,414)
Developers, 2 yr 192
Released games 579
Announced 302
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 17,915 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $83k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 302 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
Door Kickers older $19.99 8,041 94% 241k $4.8M (exactly $4,822,188) KillHouse Games
Police Stories older $19.99 7,893 85% 237k $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) HypeTrain Digital
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
X-Morph: Defense older $19.99 3,272 90% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,218) EXOR Studios
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Asgard's Fall — Viking Survivors $9.99 1,301 79% 39k $390k (exactly $389,910) Soulpotion
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Enter the Chronosphere · EA $14.99 420 94% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) Effort Star
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
SHOOPER NOVA $6.99 545 83% 16k $114k (exactly $114,286) Jamesika
Desperate Place $10.99 253 66% 7.6k $83k (exactly $83,414) BruceGalaxy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.