Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Strategy game?

Strategy + Time Manipulation

Of 71 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $82k, ×132 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 129 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 129 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $898 → $8.5k → $2.3k → $3.1k → $1.3k → $479 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,298)
Top 5% $83k (exactly $82,717)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 225
Announced 129
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Time Manipulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 4,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $82k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

F1® Manager 2024 2024 · $5.8M Phantom Brigade 2023 · $4.0M Braid 2009 · $3.1M 5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel 2020 · $2.9M Hotel Architect 2026 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Braid older $14.99 6,941 93% 208k $3.1M (exactly $3,121,368) Number None
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
Hotel Architect $29.99 1,934 94% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,740,020) Pathos Interactive
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Shadwen older $16.99 1,049 77% 31k $535k (exactly $534,675) Frozenbyte
Quantum Conundrum older $8.99 1,758 84% 53k $474k (exactly $474,133) Airtight Games
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
No Plan B older $14.99 761 86% 23k $342k (exactly $342,222) GFX47
Cube Chaos $11.99 621 95% 19k $223k (exactly $223,374) Wunarg
Theta and Paralldox on Worldlines $9.99 276 97% 8.3k $83k (exactly $82,717) XXela
Super Drift Blade $6.99 351 94% 11k $74k (exactly $73,605) Liujiajun
Loophole $9.99 154 99% 4.6k $46k (exactly $46,154) Levi Pinkert
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
Slayaway Camp 2 $12.99 49 93% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Blue Wizard Digital
Bauhaus Bonk $7.99 73 100% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) Spoonful Games
COLD VR $19.99 28 60% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) ALLWARE LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.